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Opinion14 min read

Sam Altman on Elon Musk, ‘Artificial,’ and the Future of Humanity (Part One)

The Graniite team

Why this moment feels different

For ten years, the thing I've been saying out loud was that this would come. What's changed is that people believe it now. The predictions were never the surprising part for us. What surprised us was how long it took the rest of the world to take them seriously.

  • We were predicting this internally long before the public was paying attention: the exponential curve was visible to us while most people saw nothing unusual.
  • The criticism has shifted: earlier, people asked where the cures and the economic growth were. Now the question is how fast it's moving and who gets to decide.
  • Something real is changing, even if daily life looks the same: the world hasn't transformed overnight, but the capabilities are real and the stakes are rising quickly.

Living with the sink

I'm one of many people who built this, and I want that on the record. The research and engineering behind it came from a relatively small group of brilliant scientists and engineers, and most of the credit belongs to them. But I also understand that I've become the face of it, which makes me the place where a lot of fear lands.

  • I take the portrayal personally, but not that personally. I understand the human instinct to find a person to blame when something huge is happening to the world.
  • I've done the same thing myself. I had a very evil caricature of Mark Zuckerberg in my head in the early days of Meta. Getting to know him changed my view. That's the same projection I'm on the receiving end of now.
  • The movie will be inaccurate, and I'm fine with that. Luca Guadagnino is making a good movie, not an accurate depiction. He got the walk right.
Common portrayalWhat's actually true
I'm a secret prepper with a bunkerI have a survivalist mindset and can live off grid at the ranch, but no bunker, no submarine, no helicopter
I'm running for officeI thought about running for governor of California for a while; I will never run for office
I'm in it for the moneyI like nice things and have expensive taste, but I have more than I want and I wish I'd taken equity

Fatherhood changed my priorities, not my principles

Having kids is the best thing I've ever done, by a huge margin. But I wasn't going to gamble with civilization before I had them. The change is in focus: I know what I want to protect and what kind of world I want my kids to grow up in.

  • Limiting technology for young children: I'm a strong believer in kids playing outside and avoiding touchscreens and short-form video. I don't fully understand the effects of technology on developing brains, and I feel the same way about AI.
  • No set age yet for my kids to talk to ChatGPT. Kids born now will grow up with AI and need to use it, but early childhood is not the right point for it.
  • More kids, if time allowed: given unlimited time I'd have a lot of kids, but I want to be present for each one, so two is the practical limit. This isn't about population decline. I just love having kids.

The company, the money, and the mission

OpenAI will not be a typical public company. The nonprofit will still govern us after an IPO, and the mission comes first. If we ever have to choose between the interests of the world and our particular shareholders, that decision is easy.

  • The share price may suffer for the right reasons: quarter to quarter the stock will be volatile, and we'll sometimes have to make decisions that cost revenue. If investors are patient, I think they'll do well over time.
  • We have a track record of slowing down: we've paused training runs to make progress on safety and alignment, and we've accepted slower revenue to do so.
  • I hold no direct equity: I have only a tiny sliver of exposure from an old YC investment. Looking back, I think that was a mistake, because it erodes trust in a way I didn't anticipate.
  • My compensation is the job itself: I get an unbelievable seat, an interesting life, and the chance to make a mark. That's a real reward to me, even without the stock.

On the executive departures

Growth in this industry is unprecedented. Five years of company growth is being compressed into one year. People who thrive at one stage of a company are not always the right fit for the next, and that can happen faster than usual right now. Seen through that lens, this fits the normal rhythm of a fast-growing tech company. We try not to break things.

Responsibility and the platform question

I don't accept the "we're just a town square" defense. If our tools behave in ways we don't expect, or someone is directing them in ways that cause harm, I think we're responsible for that. People should be able to use our tools in ways we might not like, but that doesn't end our responsibility.

Being honest about the hard tradeoffs

There's a real tension between capability and risk, and I won't pretend otherwise.

  • Technology can do terrible things and wonderful things. Any technology that can make a virus can also cure cancer. I don't want to stop progress, because I want the cure for cancer and for Alzheimer's.
  • I understand the instinct to just stop: it's human, and I have a lot of empathy for it. But I think it misses the nuance.
  • The right approach is to navigate the risks so we get the upside: that means building safeguards into the technology, like not helping people create novel pathogens.
  • Concentrated power is frightening: a small number of companies deciding who gets to use what is a real problem, and we feel a lot of responsibility to be fair and reliable. We also need resilience: other models will exist that people can misuse, so part of our job is helping society become more resilient before the bad things arrive.

Could we pause together?

Three levels matter here:

  1. What we'll do unilaterally: at each new capability level, we need enough progress on alignment, monitorability, and safety to proceed. When we don't have that, we pause. We recently stopped a training run for exactly this reason.
  2. What the industry should be allowed to do: we'll likely need antitrust exemptions to coordinate slowdowns among American companies.
  3. What has to happen internationally: if the US and China can agree on shared safety standards and verify compliance, that would be a major step.

I'm talking with safety leaders at other labs and with the government. The public is asking for this kind of cooperation, and I think there's a window of support right now that may not last.

Working with the bullies

I'd prefer the industry get along, and I think it has to, at least enough to make good collective decisions. I don't like bullies, and I think Elon Musk is one. Sometimes you have to punch a bully back. I'll still work with him.

What a good outcome looks like

Here is the picture I hold, in three parts:

  • The companies cooperate enough to make good collective decisions, even while competing hard.
  • Governments step up and reflect the will of the people in consequential decisions, and limit the power private companies hold.
  • We agree on shared safety standards that keep capabilities from outrunning safeguards, and then distribute the benefits and the power fairly, so society can keep inventing the future.

The boom in entrepreneurship could be enormous. And if this works, society gets rich enough that the range of things people can do for a living and the time they have for hobbies and family grows dramatically. Someone who wants to work on a farm should be able to, and I would like to, too.

Protecting people in crisis

Around 15,000 people a week die by suicide, and about 10 percent of the world talks to ChatGPT. Even one death linked to our product keeps me up at night.

  • We've put a huge amount of work into minimizing self-harm: the goal is for ChatGPT to be one of the greatest mental health tools ever, and we work with a lot of experts toward that.
  • Expert opinion on mandated reporting is divided: we follow different laws in different places. I wish there were more consensus, and there are clearly cases where reporting would be a bad thing. On the whole, I believe human expert help should be available to people in crisis.
  • Journalist Laura Riley's daughter, Sophie, died by suicide after talking at length with ChatGPT. The chatbot did not tell her to kill herself, but it did agree to act as her therapist and helped edit her suicide notes. Chat logs could reveal how people arrive at these decisions, and that could inform policy and mental health education.
  • But private data from people's hardest moments should not go to researchers without their consent. I'd like to find ways to work with the community on the mental health crisis, and I'm glad our products can help.

Closing thoughts

Asked what I privately believe about the future that I haven't said publicly, my answer is simple: I'm incredibly optimistic. There are scary things we have to get right, and we think about them every day. But I believe the long-term story is a good one.

Source: Sam Altman on Elon Musk, ‘Artificial,’ and the Future of Humanity (Part One)